Can Sri Lanka beat India to the final? WTC scenarios


India and Australia are scheduled to square off in a high-profile match that may end up serving as a warm-up for the World Test Championship final at the Oval in June. India and Australia are in first and second place in the points standings, respectively. Next month, South Africa hosts West Indies, and they will be eagerly watching the events of this series because the outcome will have a significant impact on their future. If Sri Lanka can pull off a surprise in New Zealand, they might end up being the underdogs. An examination of what each team needs to advance

P.S. The possibilities in this paragraph are based on the supposition that no team will lose points due to penalty overs, in which teams lose one championship point for each short over, changing the final percentage point total.


Australia has already qualified for the final at the Oval after losing just one Test in the current WTC. For Australia to guarantee their berth, they only need to draw one of the four Test matches in India. The only way they might theoretically miss out is if they lose to India 4-0 and Sri Lanka wins 2-0 in New Zealand.


India has their work cut out for them and would find it difficult to defeat Australia at home. If Sri Lanka wins both of its Test matches in New Zealand, India would have to defeat Australia in at least three of the four matches in order to avoid falling below Sri Lanka's 61.11%. However, if Sri Lanka is only able to win one of the two games, India just needs to win the series or tie it at two games apiece. India will finish with 55.09% if the Border-Gavaskar trophy is tied 1-1; South Africa can overtake them if they defeat the West Indies 2-0 (55.56%), as can Sri Lanka if they triumph 2-0 (61.11%) or 1-0 (55.56%) in New Zealand.

Sri Lanka

If Sri Lanka can defeat New Zealand 2-0, they might emerge as the underdogs. New Zealand, the defending WTC champions, hasn't won a series since defeating India in Southampton in 2021 and has been playing poorly. Sri Lanka advances to 61.11% if they win by a score of 2-0, and the only way they may be eliminated is if India defeats Australia by a score of 3-0 or 3-1. However, if they are only able to win by a single goal, they will only be able to end with 55.56%, which South Africa, Australia, and India can all three beat.

South Africa

After winning by an innings at Lord's in July of last year, South Africa was comfortably leading the points standings, but their subsequent five subpar batting efforts have put them in a difficult situation. If they defeat West Indies 2-0 at home, their best possible ranking is 55.56%, which is lower than Australia's, which would be 59.65% even if they lose to India 0-4 in a rout. In order for South Africa to be eligible, India would have to lose to Australia or for the series to result in a draw, and Sri Lanka would also need to lose all of its tests in New Zealand.

Does any other side stand any chance?

If West Indies defeat South Africa 2-0 away, they can reach the 50% mark. After that, they would like Sri Lanka and India to lose to Australia and New Zealand and fall short of that mark. England, which has already completed its schedule and is now sitting at 46.97% (having lost 12 points as a result of penalty overs), has a remote possibility if all of the following outcomes take place: West Indies defeated South Africa 1-0 (West Indies finished 44.87% and South Africa 44.44%), Australia defeated India 4-0 (India finished with 45.83%), and New Zealand defeated Sri Lanka 2-0 (Sri Lanka finished with 38.46%). New Zealand, Bangladesh, and Pakistan are all out.

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